* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 38 38 40 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 17 18 16 11 3 12 8 7 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 258 248 252 243 242 253 269 293 295 264 259 293 300 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 156 159 159 156 153 150 151 155 158 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 145 148 149 147 143 140 135 136 143 145 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 9 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 65 69 71 71 73 73 74 74 71 75 74 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 7 6 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -2 -1 -6 3 8 27 25 41 38 33 50 200 MB DIV 46 14 11 17 31 32 59 51 45 27 17 5 28 700-850 TADV 5 3 4 6 -2 0 -3 -1 -10 4 6 0 -1 LAND (KM) -67 -155 -139 -105 -77 -9 15 -8 -38 -149 -187 -121 -95 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.2 17.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.9 90.8 91.6 92.3 93.4 94.6 95.5 96.2 97.3 98.8 99.6 99.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 6 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 63 0 0 0 27 0 6 0 25 0 41 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -4. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 13. 15. 15. 17. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/18/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/18/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)