* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 24 26 31 32 37 37 40 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 31 36 32 29 28 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 20 20 19 11 7 14 9 13 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 0 0 -6 1 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 251 255 255 264 257 262 286 251 295 256 297 301 312 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 158 159 159 155 153 150 148 149 148 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 146 147 148 146 141 138 134 132 132 131 131 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.0 -52.6 -51.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 10 8 11 9 11 9 12 10 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 72 74 73 74 72 71 66 63 65 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 7 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -14 -23 -24 -7 5 13 27 24 14 -3 -13 200 MB DIV 3 -2 -2 16 25 40 52 42 53 41 -13 11 5 700-850 TADV 5 4 9 1 -3 1 0 2 -2 9 1 9 -1 LAND (KM) -148 -127 -66 -38 -5 51 21 -4 -30 -64 -36 -11 4 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 18.8 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.5 91.3 92.0 92.7 93.7 94.9 95.7 96.3 96.8 96.8 96.9 97.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 27 28 0 12 9 0 27 0 31 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 6. 7. 12. 12. 15. 16. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/18/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/18/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)