* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 40 42 43 42 42 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 19 16 12 13 8 11 12 15 17 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 3 3 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 251 257 248 257 248 273 267 296 304 288 290 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 151 151 150 151 151 149 148 148 146 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 140 138 137 137 135 136 134 131 130 129 127 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 67 68 67 69 70 70 68 65 63 61 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -32 -21 -10 -10 4 16 10 11 8 4 -17 N/A 200 MB DIV 20 32 34 40 43 27 25 -1 20 -8 6 8 N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 -2 -3 2 -3 1 4 3 0 2 N/A LAND (KM) 77 102 122 82 54 -34 -119 -200 -183 -193 -203 -211 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.6 94.1 94.7 95.2 96.4 97.4 98.3 98.3 98.6 98.9 99.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 15 13 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/19/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/19/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)