* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/19/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 39 39 43 43 45 46 46 47 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 14 12 8 7 6 5 9 7 13 14 18 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 0 0 -3 1 -4 0 0 2 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 244 249 230 240 239 227 252 261 279 292 287 281 N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 151 149 149 151 153 151 150 150 150 149 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 136 133 134 138 139 134 132 131 132 131 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -51.9 -52.6 -51.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 8 11 8 10 7 10 9 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 68 70 67 68 69 74 71 69 68 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -12 2 1 5 21 40 35 46 40 43 31 N/A 200 MB DIV 30 38 53 56 43 36 47 17 1 24 25 39 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 2 3 2 5 2 N/A LAND (KM) 121 103 88 67 28 -77 -209 -246 -227 -222 -234 -263 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.5 95.1 95.5 95.9 97.0 98.4 99.3 99.5 99.6 99.8 99.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 2 1 1 1 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 14 11 28 0 0 0 0 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 13. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/19/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/19/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)