* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022013 06/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 34 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 11 8 9 9 14 12 17 19 21 28 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 3 1 3 0 2 3 2 1 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 243 241 259 247 249 266 261 292 293 292 288 291 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 149 149 151 151 147 147 146 146 145 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 135 134 133 133 135 135 129 128 127 129 127 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 11 11 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 67 65 66 68 68 69 65 62 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 11 13 10 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -1 3 2 0 20 26 30 22 17 0 4 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 55 60 36 29 41 10 18 2 18 7 25 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 0 3 -9 1 -1 2 2 2 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 99 61 12 -28 -69 -150 -241 -286 -283 -261 -239 -182 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.4 20.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.7 96.2 96.7 97.1 98.0 99.0 99.7 99.6 99.5 99.5 99.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 1 1 2 3 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 6 30 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 BARRY 06/19/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 BARRY 06/19/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)