* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022013 06/20/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 52 55 54 54 53 50 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 40 44 42 37 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 8 10 15 15 14 20 27 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 2 0 0 -1 2 1 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 273 286 264 265 269 271 282 296 300 290 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 149 149 150 149 148 149 148 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 133 134 134 135 131 129 131 130 130 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 12 12 9 11 9 11 10 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 67 64 65 68 68 66 64 60 58 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 6 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 -2 -3 4 25 22 25 13 -2 -16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 68 42 10 14 8 4 13 -16 3 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -1 -3 -1 0 1 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 30 -5 -49 -92 -189 -249 -240 -219 -187 -128 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.0 96.4 96.9 97.3 98.3 98.9 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 15. 14. 14. 13. 10. 7. 6. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 BARRY 06/20/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 BARRY 06/20/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)