* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022013 06/20/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 47 49 51 53 54 54 53 51 50 49 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 6 11 7 13 7 14 16 18 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 1 -2 3 -1 2 2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 286 276 253 270 258 257 280 289 270 288 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 151 151 150 149 147 146 146 145 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 134 136 135 135 130 129 127 128 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 13 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 64 67 67 68 66 63 62 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 6 11 18 18 31 20 12 -18 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 43 22 32 34 -4 21 19 -4 0 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 3 0 -3 2 0 6 0 3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 21 -22 -65 -113 -161 -234 -287 -256 -229 -206 -159 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 21.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.6 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.8 99.5 99.3 99.2 99.2 99.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 4 1 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 31 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 BARRY 06/20/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 BARRY 06/20/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)