* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032013 06/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 44 58 66 74 70 60 51 42 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 44 58 66 74 70 60 51 42 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 36 38 37 35 30 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 10 12 15 10 5 14 14 14 15 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 0 0 -4 -2 -3 3 9 1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 21 9 339 5 22 27 49 99 94 61 72 103 20 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.0 27.4 26.2 25.3 24.2 23.0 22.2 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 162 164 156 139 126 117 106 94 85 83 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.0 -51.8 -50.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 87 87 87 89 87 87 86 82 79 78 75 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 16 16 15 18 23 25 30 31 28 25 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 15 26 26 26 28 64 92 112 128 144 127 114 72 200 MB DIV 96 130 155 161 157 176 129 99 31 0 -3 16 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 -9 0 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 676 686 696 649 603 531 625 666 696 797 926 1089 1240 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 5 7 12 15 13 11 11 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 40 47 54 44 17 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 24. 24. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 6. 13. 17. 26. 26. 22. 18. 14. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 14. 28. 36. 44. 40. 30. 21. 12. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 THREE 06/23/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 139.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)