* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032013 06/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 44 55 68 68 61 48 41 30 22 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 44 55 68 68 61 48 41 30 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 33 31 28 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 12 16 11 11 17 24 13 14 9 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 0 -4 -4 -2 0 -4 9 5 8 11 7 SHEAR DIR 311 324 359 22 37 36 71 75 58 68 84 95 69 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.4 27.2 26.1 25.0 23.9 23.2 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 164 162 150 137 125 114 103 95 85 86 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 89 89 90 89 87 87 83 79 75 70 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 18 18 20 23 26 32 33 31 25 23 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 20 35 48 80 105 135 162 152 136 110 89 200 MB DIV 123 149 142 157 174 167 130 50 56 13 -24 -13 -16 700-850 TADV -1 0 -7 -3 -5 -6 -5 -9 -14 -4 1 -5 5 LAND (KM) 667 651 637 575 535 538 670 691 759 851 1014 1172 1314 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 103.8 104.1 105.0 105.8 108.3 110.6 112.9 115.3 117.7 120.4 122.9 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 8 12 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 47 56 61 28 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 23. 23. 22. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 24. 26. 24. 15. 12. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 14. 25. 38. 38. 31. 18. 11. 0. -8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 THREE 06/23/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 149.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)