* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032013 06/24/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 44 52 64 73 73 66 54 45 37 30 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 44 52 64 73 73 66 54 45 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 41 40 36 31 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 11 16 13 12 9 14 12 14 9 6 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -5 0 -4 0 0 5 2 8 2 4 SHEAR DIR 359 21 16 37 23 5 82 64 59 40 58 46 30 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.0 27.6 26.5 25.6 24.5 23.2 22.3 22.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 161 156 141 129 120 109 96 86 84 85 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.8 -50.2 -51.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.4 -51.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 86 88 90 87 86 84 80 80 75 70 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 19 22 26 29 29 28 24 22 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 44 57 66 87 115 121 155 127 121 95 100 200 MB DIV 148 123 128 165 191 127 85 50 36 -5 1 -45 -15 700-850 TADV 0 -7 -9 -8 -2 0 -3 -10 -4 3 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 647 595 552 526 511 596 671 703 793 899 1062 1237 1445 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.6 20.8 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.7 105.2 106.2 107.1 109.6 111.8 114.0 116.3 119.0 121.9 124.5 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 13 12 11 12 13 14 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 55 61 60 47 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 20. 17. 12. 9. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 22. 34. 43. 43. 36. 24. 15. 7. 0. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 THREE 06/24/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 151.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)