* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 52 58 72 77 73 63 52 44 35 30 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 52 58 72 77 73 63 52 44 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 51 47 42 35 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 10 7 12 16 13 9 9 5 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 2 2 7 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 30 27 35 12 28 59 94 95 83 90 68 25 36 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.6 27.4 26.3 25.2 24.2 23.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 157 151 139 127 116 106 96 87 88 89 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 88 88 89 89 87 87 85 81 79 73 69 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 20 19 25 26 24 22 18 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 46 58 66 93 116 152 151 127 103 84 84 200 MB DIV 107 119 145 167 170 147 66 20 27 -18 1 5 -6 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -3 -2 -3 -7 -4 -4 1 0 3 6 -2 LAND (KM) 647 601 567 568 563 683 712 798 914 1042 1181 1344 1564 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.5 106.2 107.3 108.3 110.6 112.9 115.4 118.0 120.5 122.9 125.4 127.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 50 59 61 53 33 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 13. 16. 17. 17. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 6. 14. 17. 16. 12. 7. 5. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 17. 23. 37. 42. 38. 28. 17. 9. 0. -5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)