* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 78 78 71 55 43 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 78 78 71 55 43 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 65 66 64 58 49 40 33 27 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 9 12 15 15 15 9 8 7 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 -2 -1 2 10 4 9 2 4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 323 349 93 124 122 114 99 124 115 86 60 54 53 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.5 26.8 25.5 24.4 23.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 147 140 133 119 107 96 85 84 83 85 86 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -50.3 -51.4 -50.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 87 87 87 85 85 80 80 73 66 63 56 59 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 27 28 30 29 29 23 21 17 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 54 57 64 81 93 127 159 130 124 79 84 75 77 200 MB DIV 167 127 135 131 120 44 49 -31 -10 -7 -7 -16 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -9 -13 -1 4 -2 7 3 0 2 4 2 8 LAND (KM) 502 529 583 663 649 718 819 937 1136 1289 1472 1673 1870 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.6 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.5 109.6 110.9 112.1 114.5 116.6 119.1 122.0 124.7 127.2 129.5 131.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 11 11 13 13 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 23 13 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 7. 7. 8. 0. -2. -8. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 23. 16. 0. -12. -27. -37. -44. -49. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)