* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 70 68 56 46 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 70 68 56 46 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 62 62 59 52 44 37 31 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 13 11 12 17 10 7 4 7 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 4 7 3 5 1 3 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 5 80 99 104 76 79 91 124 99 35 52 51 45 SST (C) 28.6 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.0 24.7 23.5 22.5 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 144 138 131 124 111 98 88 81 83 85 86 88 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 87 85 83 81 79 75 70 67 60 58 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 27 29 29 28 23 21 18 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 76 89 111 157 162 131 118 98 96 81 80 200 MB DIV 123 114 107 110 79 58 37 -11 -1 -1 -6 1 0 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -1 1 -2 -4 1 2 2 8 5 4 4 LAND (KM) 538 610 656 662 694 799 899 1052 1206 1395 1591 1813 2033 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.3 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 110.1 111.2 112.5 113.7 116.0 118.5 121.0 123.6 126.2 128.5 131.0 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 13. 1. -9. -22. -32. -40. -46. -51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)