* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 72 70 62 49 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 72 70 62 49 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 65 64 62 55 45 36 29 24 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 12 10 13 11 10 6 5 5 7 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 3 4 11 4 6 0 1 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 63 104 101 106 96 100 116 105 97 73 47 72 6 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.5 24.9 23.5 22.3 21.4 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 124 119 113 98 86 76 79 81 82 84 87 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -50.2 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 81 78 75 70 66 62 60 61 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 32 33 34 32 29 26 22 19 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 65 81 99 112 123 146 113 105 81 82 70 79 67 200 MB DIV 128 127 130 61 39 66 -10 -7 -10 -9 -6 -9 -10 700-850 TADV -9 -4 0 0 -2 3 6 3 2 6 4 3 1 LAND (KM) 585 597 602 637 690 790 949 1116 1295 1499 1733 1928 2030 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.5 112.7 113.8 114.9 117.3 120.1 122.8 125.4 128.0 130.7 133.2 135.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 11 11 13 14 12 12 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -20. -23. -25. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 10. 2. -11. -27. -41. -52. -60. -65. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##