* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 75 76 71 60 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 74 75 76 71 60 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 74 72 67 55 44 34 28 23 19 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 13 9 7 8 2 2 10 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 3 3 4 5 0 4 -1 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 39 110 103 116 114 135 137 143 283 286 355 350 343 SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.1 22.8 21.7 21.3 21.4 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 118 111 104 91 80 75 76 81 83 85 86 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 81 79 73 70 65 59 61 60 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 25 27 24 23 20 17 14 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 77 88 103 116 127 125 101 78 60 58 57 58 45 200 MB DIV 80 89 58 63 80 35 -12 -15 -8 -13 -5 -18 -16 700-850 TADV -3 0 -2 0 0 1 4 3 5 7 8 7 5 LAND (KM) 607 620 657 710 755 853 1020 1168 1356 1577 1817 1978 1990 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.2 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.3 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 113.0 114.1 115.2 116.3 118.7 121.4 124.0 126.5 129.0 131.5 133.7 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -26. -33. -37. -39. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 1. -10. -26. -43. -55. -64. -72. -77. -82. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)