* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 76 70 55 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 76 70 55 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 77 73 67 53 41 33 27 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 13 10 6 6 3 7 11 10 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 2 4 1 6 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 96 93 75 97 88 138 125 187 332 332 346 320 331 SST (C) 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.2 23.4 22.2 21.5 21.7 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 120 115 106 98 85 78 80 79 81 84 86 86 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 82 80 82 79 75 72 63 64 57 57 53 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 26 29 27 25 23 19 16 14 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 88 107 121 135 140 118 94 72 67 51 48 41 40 200 MB DIV 80 69 69 67 57 14 -26 -29 -9 -7 1 -17 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -2 0 2 4 2 7 5 9 2 1 LAND (KM) 637 673 728 774 804 952 1139 1322 1518 1723 1899 2041 1826 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.3 20.6 21.1 21.6 21.7 21.4 21.5 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 114.0 115.1 116.3 117.5 120.2 123.0 125.8 128.4 130.7 132.6 134.9 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -25. -33. -39. -43. -45. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. -23. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 1. -5. -20. -38. -53. -65. -74. -81. -86. -92. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)