* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 74 69 63 46 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 76 74 69 63 46 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 73 67 60 47 36 29 24 21 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 8 7 8 6 3 5 7 9 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 6 6 4 0 3 -3 0 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 75 89 103 140 147 147 186 305 300 328 295 309 308 SST (C) 25.6 25.0 24.2 23.4 22.8 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 114 106 97 91 80 78 76 79 81 83 85 86 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 77 75 71 67 64 63 61 58 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 31 30 26 26 22 19 16 15 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 99 117 129 136 135 107 91 69 66 52 45 40 43 200 MB DIV 79 72 65 39 5 -20 -18 -22 -6 -1 -11 -11 -15 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 5 9 3 2 3 6 6 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 661 709 759 796 853 1035 1199 1399 1616 1805 1924 1962 1706 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.2 117.5 118.7 121.5 124.3 127.0 129.6 131.8 133.8 136.1 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -20. -29. -37. -43. -46. -48. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -5. -9. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -6. -12. -29. -44. -57. -66. -73. -77. -81. -86. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)