* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 48 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 48 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 48 43 38 30 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 9 7 7 8 7 4 7 5 14 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 9 10 4 8 0 1 -2 2 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 112 108 133 149 148 158 208 301 309 284 288 298 295 SST (C) 24.8 24.0 23.2 22.6 22.0 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 112 104 95 89 83 75 77 77 80 82 85 84 84 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 72 71 65 62 58 59 56 56 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 28 24 25 24 19 16 14 12 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 114 127 129 123 109 88 62 55 46 43 38 37 36 200 MB DIV 68 72 54 11 -18 -7 -4 4 -6 -3 -16 2 10 700-850 TADV -4 2 6 10 0 6 2 8 6 8 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 683 734 779 844 925 1092 1289 1510 1727 1885 2023 1838 1695 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.9 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.3 117.5 118.8 120.1 122.9 125.8 128.5 130.9 133.2 135.5 137.3 138.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -23. -29. -33. -35. -35. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -3. -4. -6. -13. -17. -22. -24. -25. -28. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -27. -45. -57. -67. -74. -79. -83. -85. -86. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)