* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 42 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 42 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 48 42 37 33 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 6 7 4 5 9 7 7 9 14 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 7 1 4 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 137 158 166 171 179 213 260 292 323 302 327 316 309 SST (C) 24.3 23.5 22.9 22.3 21.6 21.1 21.2 21.6 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 106 98 93 87 79 73 74 78 80 82 84 83 83 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 83 80 77 74 71 68 62 60 56 54 51 46 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 24 24 22 21 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 129 133 128 121 109 70 56 47 35 30 22 25 17 200 MB DIV 55 45 17 -3 -15 -19 -1 -8 -6 -16 -2 -16 4 700-850 TADV -2 7 7 0 1 7 8 4 9 8 4 7 1 LAND (KM) 743 783 845 930 1012 1141 1373 1597 1787 1909 2024 1870 1738 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.7 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.0 22.0 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 117.2 118.5 120.0 121.4 124.1 126.9 129.5 131.8 133.7 135.5 137.0 138.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -22. -27. -31. -32. -32. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -28. -43. -54. -61. -67. -70. -76. -77. -78. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)