* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 35 31 27 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 4 3 4 3 6 7 12 11 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 1 5 7 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 114 134 129 168 168 228 312 305 295 299 297 292 290 SST (C) 23.6 22.9 22.4 21.8 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 99 92 87 81 75 76 78 80 81 84 84 86 88 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 72 68 67 59 60 55 56 49 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 21 20 18 15 13 12 10 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 123 112 106 108 91 64 62 46 42 29 23 18 39 200 MB DIV 45 26 13 -3 -16 -7 0 -14 -7 -11 -1 -2 43 700-850 TADV 5 7 1 1 3 1 4 5 10 5 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 770 830 907 999 1062 1232 1480 1718 1874 1994 1971 1786 1571 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.3 119.6 121.1 122.5 125.2 128.1 130.7 132.9 134.7 136.0 137.8 139.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -21. -23. -23. -23. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -26. -39. -47. -52. -58. -60. -64. -65. -64. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)