* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 33 29 24 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 3 3 5 4 3 7 12 12 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 5 7 0 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 151 150 187 93 119 256 278 306 266 301 295 296 285 SST (C) 22.8 22.2 21.5 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.5 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 91 85 78 74 75 74 78 81 84 84 84 85 88 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 69 66 63 62 58 57 51 48 43 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 20 19 18 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 113 105 105 94 81 67 58 40 43 27 26 17 26 200 MB DIV 19 0 -9 -14 -13 1 -9 -9 -7 -16 -19 8 -21 700-850 TADV 5 0 -2 4 4 3 3 3 5 4 7 2 3 LAND (KM) 845 928 1003 1076 1163 1373 1601 1805 1967 1941 1758 1605 1469 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.1 21.9 21.9 22.1 22.1 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 120.0 121.4 122.8 124.2 126.9 129.6 132.1 134.3 136.3 138.1 139.6 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -19. -22. -25. -24. -24. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -24. -36. -44. -51. -55. -59. -61. -63. -65. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)