* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 24 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 5 2 3 1 5 8 10 13 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -1 -2 -1 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 351 103 133 157 200 146 221 242 286 296 303 6 34 SST (C) 21.6 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 79 75 77 76 77 80 83 85 85 86 90 92 97 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -53.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 70 66 65 61 64 56 55 50 47 41 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 110 100 85 74 72 70 50 48 33 31 31 35 38 200 MB DIV -3 -3 -5 -11 -2 -11 -12 -14 -9 -14 -13 -26 -45 700-850 TADV -1 2 5 0 0 1 2 0 4 1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1047 1125 1219 1325 1437 1654 1872 2018 1898 1694 1478 1273 1063 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.9 22.4 22.7 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 123.3 124.8 126.2 127.5 129.9 132.6 134.8 136.7 138.7 140.9 143.0 145.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -32. -40. -45. -48. -50. -52. -54. -54. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)