* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042013 06/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 57 59 60 56 55 55 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 57 59 60 56 55 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 42 45 46 46 45 42 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 7 6 6 9 10 12 7 9 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 191 174 190 177 158 159 135 147 118 134 124 137 119 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.5 25.3 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 163 162 160 154 146 138 127 114 107 106 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 7 9 6 7 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 72 67 65 64 63 64 62 64 70 68 73 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 18 7 3 17 19 19 25 37 53 53 65 59 66 200 MB DIV 57 49 23 39 57 31 36 31 57 20 42 8 23 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 1 1 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 493 417 345 279 221 170 142 163 200 285 359 356 360 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 5 4 5 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 51 47 31 24 22 20 15 6 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 6. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 27. 29. 30. 26. 25. 25. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 FOUR 06/30/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)