* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 06/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 49 56 59 62 62 60 63 62 58 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 49 56 59 62 62 60 63 62 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 48 52 55 57 57 55 53 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 9 9 11 11 5 7 4 4 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -8 -5 -1 -2 0 0 -3 -1 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 216 218 150 155 134 96 82 88 82 129 175 307 99 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.4 27.7 26.8 26.2 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 163 161 158 154 146 138 129 123 115 108 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 73 68 66 66 63 60 61 61 66 65 69 68 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 13 17 24 16 22 33 46 57 80 60 71 200 MB DIV 46 32 46 57 68 36 25 -2 18 23 52 -1 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -6 -2 -1 2 2 1 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 399 348 281 232 198 160 142 163 192 256 342 388 406 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.4 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.6 104.0 104.7 105.6 106.5 107.2 108.0 108.8 110.0 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 30 25 25 24 19 14 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 24. 27. 27. 25. 28. 27. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 06/30/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)