* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 06/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 43 48 54 59 57 61 61 60 59 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 43 48 54 59 57 61 61 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 46 51 55 57 57 55 53 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 9 10 12 12 11 10 5 6 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 0 0 -3 0 -1 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 223 159 142 144 124 108 113 100 107 104 122 69 122 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.6 27.6 26.7 26.1 25.9 25.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 161 160 159 156 149 138 128 122 120 115 106 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 64 60 62 59 63 60 59 62 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 11 9 12 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 2 12 16 12 8 23 28 35 45 60 59 60 57 200 MB DIV 28 50 54 51 11 24 -1 21 -9 27 26 15 -14 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 0 4 2 0 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 323 270 226 209 194 171 203 258 297 375 433 432 426 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.3 19.0 19.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.5 103.8 104.2 104.6 105.4 106.6 107.6 108.3 109.1 109.9 110.9 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 23 22 21 17 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. 2. 2. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 24. 22. 26. 26. 25. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 06/30/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)