* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 06/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 56 58 60 59 57 56 56 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 56 58 60 59 57 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 43 47 50 50 50 48 47 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 4 6 8 12 8 8 2 4 2 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 6 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 112 115 104 89 104 102 100 111 152 96 163 147 200 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 159 157 152 145 137 131 125 119 115 114 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 59 58 59 61 61 61 62 63 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 11 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 20 15 20 25 27 42 43 59 45 66 62 200 MB DIV 33 43 46 17 9 2 -9 24 11 23 0 11 16 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 5 2 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 244 204 171 168 167 145 180 243 313 388 422 437 521 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 103.9 104.2 104.7 105.1 105.9 106.7 107.5 108.3 109.1 109.8 111.1 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 20 18 13 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 21. 23. 25. 24. 22. 21. 21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 06/30/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)