* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 48 49 53 56 60 58 58 57 54 49 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 48 49 53 56 60 58 58 57 54 49 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 48 51 54 55 54 53 51 49 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 14 11 9 8 4 6 2 3 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 148 139 124 127 128 129 115 106 84 152 119 187 154 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 154 151 146 139 134 128 123 120 116 115 113 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 63 61 59 62 57 59 60 55 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 6 8 7 7 9 10 9 11 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 13 18 24 25 47 53 52 43 52 39 38 200 MB DIV 26 14 3 35 -3 -19 45 0 16 2 4 -16 -6 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -4 -3 -2 3 7 1 -1 -1 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 207 201 182 191 214 247 292 350 421 444 448 494 594 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 18.9 19.0 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.0 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.4 108.0 108.7 109.4 110.2 111.1 112.3 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 12 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 8. 9. 13. 16. 20. 18. 18. 17. 14. 9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)