* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 57 58 59 59 62 60 59 57 52 49 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 57 58 59 59 62 60 59 57 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 60 61 61 59 58 55 53 51 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 17 12 10 7 5 7 3 3 7 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -1 -1 0 -4 -4 -1 1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 136 109 115 118 141 122 153 89 112 68 115 153 155 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 139 137 132 129 126 124 124 123 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 64 62 64 61 57 62 57 55 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 7 9 8 9 9 8 11 11 12 12 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 15 19 15 37 42 58 47 45 36 28 18 200 MB DIV 15 19 36 -21 -52 24 -18 27 13 0 -33 -9 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -4 -3 2 6 3 2 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 206 203 214 226 240 296 360 407 444 452 509 582 652 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.0 106.5 106.8 107.1 107.9 108.7 109.2 109.8 110.8 112.2 113.5 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 3 4 4 3 2 4 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 12. 10. 9. 7. 2. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)