* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 66 66 67 68 66 65 62 61 54 49 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 66 66 67 68 66 65 62 61 54 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 68 69 67 63 60 57 55 53 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 12 12 7 3 7 2 3 5 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -2 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 102 104 109 132 140 129 332 42 78 88 154 158 142 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 137 136 133 130 126 125 123 124 122 118 114 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 5 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 62 64 62 63 63 63 59 59 58 57 52 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 9 9 11 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 14 17 16 26 42 51 50 32 41 29 25 23 200 MB DIV 18 43 -11 -42 -19 31 -6 31 4 -3 1 -4 2 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -2 3 3 4 1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 215 230 252 273 294 340 397 435 444 454 524 595 652 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.7 107.1 107.5 107.8 108.4 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.9 112.5 113.7 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 6 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 11. 10. 7. 6. -1. -6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)