* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 69 69 69 69 68 63 57 51 46 42 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 69 69 69 69 68 63 57 51 46 42 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 68 68 65 62 60 59 56 53 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 12 12 4 5 2 6 6 10 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 1 0 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 115 124 144 147 140 140 71 91 147 168 147 145 133 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 135 133 129 128 127 127 127 124 119 113 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 61 61 61 58 59 59 55 51 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 11 21 32 40 51 35 43 45 30 23 25 200 MB DIV 22 -10 -23 -25 13 14 36 3 12 -5 -3 -5 5 700-850 TADV -4 -1 2 3 5 2 2 0 -1 -3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 231 254 278 298 318 378 414 459 489 504 558 648 761 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.0 108.7 109.1 109.6 110.2 111.2 112.6 114.1 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 4 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 3. -3. -9. -14. -18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)