* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 52 52 55 59 56 54 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 52 52 55 59 56 54 52 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 55 54 54 54 53 53 51 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 15 13 9 5 6 12 15 14 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -6 -3 0 -2 -2 -6 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 106 125 113 102 121 115 110 134 135 148 140 137 118 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 137 137 135 134 133 132 132 128 121 116 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 62 59 61 60 57 58 56 50 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 10 12 10 10 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 14 28 35 48 59 49 72 63 75 70 83 200 MB DIV -12 -18 -4 23 27 8 33 14 19 10 48 13 10 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 4 3 4 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 252 276 301 327 353 405 464 516 568 587 652 733 828 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.0 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.5 109.1 109.7 110.4 111.5 113.1 114.6 116.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 5 4 3 1 1 2 3 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)