* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 47 48 51 54 57 57 58 59 58 54 V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 47 48 51 54 57 57 58 59 58 54 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 52 51 50 49 49 49 49 49 48 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 17 15 13 11 11 11 10 13 14 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -8 -5 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 112 105 96 104 105 99 112 118 118 110 116 128 127 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 138 138 138 138 138 137 136 133 128 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 62 63 62 61 58 59 57 56 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 14 13 14 16 17 18 17 17 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 4 12 30 36 36 53 52 55 60 51 45 41 41 200 MB DIV -26 -5 32 28 -16 48 12 24 7 42 18 17 17 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 4 3 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 267 283 300 325 349 428 511 578 647 679 732 798 864 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.0 107.2 107.5 107.7 108.4 109.2 109.9 110.7 111.7 112.9 114.2 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 4 3 2 4 6 8 8 8 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -7. -4. -1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##