* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 72 74 77 71 71 66 60 58 51 48 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 72 74 77 71 71 66 60 58 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 71 72 72 70 67 64 61 57 55 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 10 10 19 15 19 17 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 107 98 107 110 99 94 128 112 124 113 96 111 120 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 136 136 134 134 135 136 137 134 130 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 62 62 60 58 59 59 60 61 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 14 11 14 14 13 14 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 34 37 39 47 69 58 74 70 69 72 69 64 200 MB DIV -14 33 11 -3 -8 22 10 25 11 31 31 20 5 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 4 3 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 246 262 278 309 341 425 522 602 665 717 767 826 904 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.9 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.3 107.4 107.7 107.9 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.1 111.9 113.0 114.2 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 3 2 1 3 6 8 9 8 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 1. 6. 5. 4. 5. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 6. 6. 1. -5. -7. -14. -17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)