* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 65 65 65 61 56 51 46 39 33 29 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 65 65 65 61 56 51 46 39 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 64 64 63 61 58 54 50 46 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 10 10 12 15 15 15 19 25 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -2 -4 -2 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 106 104 109 103 110 137 132 146 129 128 128 136 121 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 137 138 136 133 130 126 120 114 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 66 63 59 62 56 57 53 53 53 51 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 10 11 10 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 44 59 66 53 59 43 50 38 30 33 41 200 MB DIV 6 -4 -13 23 14 8 15 0 23 11 13 -9 0 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 3 1 -3 -2 0 -2 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 276 310 345 383 422 506 596 617 632 662 709 790 851 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.1 108.4 109.3 110.4 111.4 112.2 113.3 114.5 115.8 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 3 3 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -26. -32. -36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)