* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 73 75 73 70 65 57 49 43 37 32 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 73 75 73 70 65 57 49 43 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 71 70 68 65 62 57 51 45 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 10 9 8 11 14 13 18 19 13 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 97 116 99 118 126 116 122 111 119 122 124 117 100 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 138 138 135 131 125 120 115 112 108 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 60 56 52 54 53 48 49 50 51 49 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 36 44 61 64 61 58 59 44 40 37 31 24 19 200 MB DIV -6 -1 38 13 4 12 4 11 -14 5 -5 -5 -6 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 356 402 448 492 537 630 668 702 724 771 820 891 955 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.4 108.7 109.1 109.5 110.5 111.7 112.9 113.9 114.9 115.9 117.2 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 2 4 6 5 5 4 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 0. -5. -13. -21. -27. -33. -38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)