* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 58 57 54 55 50 49 42 38 33 28 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 58 57 54 55 50 49 42 38 33 28 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 56 55 54 52 50 47 43 39 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 11 13 17 13 16 13 16 12 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -5 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 108 108 107 123 144 121 135 109 112 111 126 117 89 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.5 24.9 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 140 140 138 137 131 124 117 111 109 105 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 56 57 53 54 52 51 50 53 52 54 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 11 13 12 13 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 59 65 55 61 61 53 46 46 38 30 24 13 200 MB DIV -1 41 29 0 -1 10 7 20 6 -19 -21 -1 -8 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 381 432 482 536 590 685 723 750 764 813 861 940 1060 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.4 108.8 109.4 109.9 111.0 112.1 113.3 114.4 115.7 117.0 118.5 120.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 4 6 7 7 5 3 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 2. 4. 1. 0. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -3. -6. -5. -10. -11. -18. -22. -27. -32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)