* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 34 33 31 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 34 33 31 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 32 31 30 28 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 16 16 13 18 17 14 14 13 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -3 -5 0 -1 3 1 2 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 107 116 115 121 128 92 107 110 110 115 109 116 100 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.2 23.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 136 134 130 122 116 112 109 104 100 98 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 52 49 46 44 45 46 43 44 46 45 48 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 44 50 52 50 48 42 40 27 32 23 20 12 -2 200 MB DIV -23 -28 -9 4 6 27 -9 -14 0 -7 -11 -28 -19 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 524 575 626 638 644 662 685 751 822 892 998 1138 1304 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.0 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.1 110.6 111.1 111.6 112.7 114.0 115.2 116.3 117.8 119.7 121.4 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 4 5 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -14. -19. -25. -31. -35. -40. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/04/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)