* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052013 07/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 54 54 53 50 48 44 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 54 54 53 50 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 53 54 53 51 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 16 13 12 15 14 19 11 15 11 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 2 1 2 0 2 -1 4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 75 82 80 77 84 90 88 86 58 58 47 62 69 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.5 25.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 162 160 158 152 147 142 136 128 122 114 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 81 78 80 81 79 84 81 75 71 67 70 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 6 6 7 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 27 6 6 7 11 10 24 28 14 11 12 0 -9 200 MB DIV 61 46 67 57 45 70 51 58 21 35 13 36 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 0 -6 -1 -2 1 LAND (KM) 310 275 256 239 221 222 215 255 291 384 478 470 530 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 24 25 24 19 9 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 24. 24. 23. 20. 18. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 FIVE 07/04/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)