* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 24 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 18 20 22 20 17 12 12 12 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -1 -2 1 0 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 126 115 127 125 126 113 114 102 76 72 81 101 118 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 134 131 124 120 115 111 107 105 102 96 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 43 42 44 46 49 48 48 51 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 52 50 55 55 51 43 44 31 25 22 8 -19 200 MB DIV -28 -7 19 11 26 23 -7 3 -6 -5 2 -4 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 0 7 LAND (KM) 576 622 643 641 646 673 704 751 823 884 967 1070 1183 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.6 111.1 111.7 112.3 113.5 114.3 115.3 116.5 117.8 119.1 120.5 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 4 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -17. -23. -31. -35. -38. -43. -45. -44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/04/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)