* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052013 07/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 39 42 49 54 60 62 60 56 53 50 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 39 42 49 43 46 49 47 43 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 42 44 48 50 50 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 14 10 9 13 12 4 4 6 8 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 1 4 4 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 79 65 60 83 106 65 39 41 25 65 56 85 111 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.0 26.6 25.1 24.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 161 160 158 154 150 144 130 114 108 105 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 7 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 81 82 83 82 80 77 73 63 62 59 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 15 14 16 43 27 34 20 16 6 5 -4 200 MB DIV 58 78 69 67 84 44 24 20 13 3 9 10 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 -4 -2 -6 -3 -2 5 LAND (KM) 248 205 164 130 96 47 -17 24 97 249 311 379 547 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.8 99.4 99.9 100.4 100.9 101.9 103.0 104.4 106.1 108.0 110.2 112.5 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 23 27 17 3 8 7 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 19. 24. 30. 32. 30. 26. 23. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 FIVE 07/04/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)