* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 15 18 24 18 16 16 11 11 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 2 2 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 132 130 132 132 122 112 108 73 84 72 92 84 80 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.9 24.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 131 128 124 120 115 112 111 111 107 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 41 40 44 43 49 48 52 53 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 9 9 7 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 43 48 37 59 58 48 48 49 34 16 6 200 MB DIV -3 19 26 21 21 12 -13 -12 0 -8 -7 -10 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 626 635 650 649 652 664 711 774 842 912 1023 1129 1260 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.3 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.3 112.7 113.5 114.4 115.5 116.5 117.7 119.2 120.7 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 4 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -13. -18. -18. -21. -25. -27. -29. -30. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)