* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 46 49 56 63 64 64 57 50 43 35 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 46 49 56 63 64 64 57 50 43 35 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 53 58 59 57 53 48 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 6 7 10 12 12 10 9 10 11 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 4 3 5 1 0 1 2 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 73 56 55 92 76 69 55 55 67 56 76 66 77 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.2 26.4 25.0 23.6 23.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 159 157 152 146 134 126 113 98 94 85 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 9 6 7 5 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 82 82 81 81 75 68 66 65 63 61 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 9 8 8 9 8 9 7 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 15 26 45 48 54 28 22 18 15 2 -13 200 MB DIV 73 54 43 55 87 58 45 -2 11 -8 22 -6 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -6 -7 -6 -6 -6 0 0 LAND (KM) 211 184 156 147 144 127 145 228 318 300 279 405 574 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.4 19.1 19.5 20.2 21.2 21.6 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.4 101.1 101.9 102.6 104.1 105.9 107.4 108.6 110.2 112.0 114.2 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 7 7 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 24 26 23 16 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 22. 21. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 21. 28. 29. 29. 22. 15. 8. 0. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)