* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 25 24 22 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 19 18 20 16 15 14 12 12 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -1 1 -1 -3 0 2 -4 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 149 143 132 125 125 119 116 93 119 115 113 94 N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.5 23.9 23.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 130 128 123 121 116 110 106 100 99 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 44 44 46 47 50 53 55 55 52 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 49 36 52 55 54 48 51 45 25 15 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 22 15 8 15 13 0 -7 11 4 -1 -20 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 1 1 3 6 6 1 0 N/A LAND (KM) 650 648 649 659 671 694 713 759 803 860 906 1032 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.8 112.1 112.5 112.9 113.7 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.7 118.9 120.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 4 4 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. -27. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)