* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 54 58 66 70 70 67 60 53 44 35 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 54 58 66 70 70 67 60 53 44 35 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 54 58 64 66 65 61 55 48 41 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 11 12 14 13 10 8 8 12 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 3 3 1 -1 -4 1 2 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 62 63 70 71 74 74 70 63 84 38 57 78 81 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.7 26.7 25.5 24.4 23.8 22.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 154 148 141 130 118 107 101 88 77 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 81 82 74 72 63 64 62 58 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 22 40 49 45 49 29 29 24 10 -6 -18 200 MB DIV 54 49 56 78 58 43 33 9 19 15 7 -15 -15 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 -4 -8 -8 -5 -10 -1 0 LAND (KM) 234 221 215 201 182 201 244 326 344 325 469 571 720 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.6 102.3 103.0 103.7 105.2 107.0 108.5 109.9 111.8 114.3 116.5 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 25 23 19 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 18. 17. 16. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 26. 30. 30. 27. 20. 13. 4. -5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)