* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 15 17 20 20 16 19 21 24 25 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -4 -2 0 0 -1 1 3 -1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 149 133 125 118 112 124 108 119 99 88 86 86 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 131 130 128 128 126 123 122 120 116 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 48 49 51 58 61 64 62 61 64 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 50 44 54 59 58 47 54 53 38 12 5 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 24 29 23 20 15 8 31 11 25 3 -5 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 3 0 -1 -3 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 665 682 701 706 712 750 805 846 895 974 1036 1096 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.0 112.4 112.7 112.9 113.5 114.0 114.7 115.6 116.9 118.1 119.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 3 1 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)