* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 66 72 79 80 79 71 61 50 41 30 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 66 72 79 80 79 71 61 50 41 30 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 67 71 75 74 69 60 50 41 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 7 7 7 12 14 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 0 2 0 -2 -1 2 -1 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 60 74 64 84 84 62 51 67 40 34 49 43 54 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.0 25.3 24.0 23.3 22.9 21.8 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 154 151 146 134 116 102 95 91 80 71 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 8 6 6 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 82 78 73 67 64 68 65 64 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 8 11 12 11 12 11 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 19 33 48 43 57 34 21 25 16 -1 -7 -11 200 MB DIV 36 48 65 58 41 66 25 25 15 28 -20 -37 -18 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -4 -7 -11 -6 -7 -4 -1 2 LAND (KM) 208 205 180 168 170 176 247 302 265 366 434 594 785 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 18.1 19.2 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.4 103.1 103.8 104.5 106.0 107.7 109.6 111.4 113.2 114.9 117.2 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 22 18 15 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 29. 30. 29. 21. 11. 0. -9. -20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)