* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 24 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 24 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 28 26 24 22 20 19 17 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 19 23 22 18 17 14 14 13 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 5 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 131 126 121 119 112 111 99 102 85 100 100 101 N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 128 127 126 125 123 120 117 114 111 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 45 45 51 54 56 62 61 63 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 32 38 37 49 43 58 45 37 20 8 3 N/A 200 MB DIV 27 15 15 8 14 14 -3 42 -11 -1 7 2 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 0 N/A LAND (KM) 684 701 721 740 761 792 837 873 928 988 1037 1105 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.7 113.1 113.4 113.7 114.1 114.7 115.4 116.4 117.6 118.8 120.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 1 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)