* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 70 71 69 66 60 51 40 31 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 70 71 69 66 60 51 40 31 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 66 70 72 73 68 60 51 41 32 25 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 10 17 13 9 3 8 7 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 1 1 2 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 77 60 70 89 92 93 61 82 58 89 94 116 172 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.3 24.6 23.2 22.3 21.3 20.6 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 151 148 141 127 109 94 85 74 67 64 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 77 73 72 65 63 67 63 63 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 9 10 8 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 38 50 45 45 56 25 21 17 2 -10 -19 2 200 MB DIV 55 64 67 67 76 27 10 25 -18 0 -5 -2 -9 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 -1 -4 -4 -12 -12 -4 -6 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 204 180 168 165 171 201 312 260 299 365 476 621 759 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.1 103.8 104.5 105.2 106.8 108.6 110.5 112.5 114.5 116.5 118.5 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 18 15 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -1. -5. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 16. 14. 11. 5. -4. -14. -24. -33. -41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)