* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 68 67 67 64 56 46 35 26 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 68 67 67 64 56 46 35 26 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 68 70 71 70 65 56 45 35 27 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 6 13 13 6 8 5 3 6 7 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 -2 0 6 SHEAR DIR 69 80 87 116 111 68 79 103 89 87 95 137 193 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.2 25.3 23.4 21.9 21.3 21.3 20.5 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 149 147 136 116 96 80 74 75 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 6 7 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 81 76 74 72 68 65 66 62 62 58 57 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 44 49 57 38 18 12 0 -12 -16 -17 1 200 MB DIV 67 58 59 68 79 17 28 -7 2 5 -9 0 -15 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -4 -6 -2 -13 -7 -8 0 0 6 8 LAND (KM) 179 155 148 144 124 189 244 136 235 323 517 709 898 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.6 20.9 22.0 22.7 23.0 22.8 22.8 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.3 105.0 105.6 107.3 109.0 110.9 112.8 114.8 116.9 119.4 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 15 14 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 8. 7. 7. 4. -4. -14. -25. -34. -42. -49. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)