* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 23 27 24 17 16 9 14 18 20 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 -1 3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 114 105 101 102 100 107 106 113 94 100 107 99 117 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 128 127 127 124 121 119 115 114 109 104 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 50 51 51 57 60 62 60 59 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 49 35 26 38 33 33 11 2 4 4 13 200 MB DIV 16 13 17 17 23 6 18 11 9 5 -4 -22 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -1 1 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 717 724 731 738 745 766 791 818 874 927 980 1044 1130 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.0 113.1 113.3 113.4 113.8 114.4 115.1 116.0 117.0 118.2 119.5 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -18. -22. -23. -26. -27. -27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/06/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)